Comments on: Embracing (Climate) Uncertainty http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/ where nature and culture meet Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:14:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: JohnB http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10653 JohnB Fri, 09 Jul 2010 02:21:46 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10653 Tom, it is a diminishing risk over Geological time periods, but from our perspective the risk won't change much over human history. Things wandering in to hit us isn't the problem, we are a small target. However there is the problem of a wanderer doing damage in the Asteroid Belt and making some of them dangerous. One thing is certain. The probability that Earth will be hit by a dinosaur killer in the future is 1. It <em>will</em> happen, we just don't know <em>when</em>. In 1994 we saw a string of 17 explosions rip across the surface of Jupiter, the impacts of Shoemaker Levy 9. Every one of those impacts was big enough to be a dinosaur killer if it had hit Earth. I'm a big supporter of Spaceguard. We have empirical proof that the killers are out there. We have seen in real time the destruction they represent. From our own history we can be pretty sure that we have been hit within recorded history. But it doesn't take a dino killer to do great damage. Even a relatively mediocre meteorite in the right place could do immense damage. A water strike in the confined waters of the Mediterranean will cause untold damage and loss of life. The danger is very real, but if it makes you feel safer, the last I heard there was exactly 1 observatory in the entire Southern Hemisphere with time in their budget to look for "Earth Grazers". There were 2, but the Australian Gov in a feat of monumental stupidity withdrew the funding about 4 years ago. Sleep well. :) Tom, it is a diminishing risk over Geological time periods, but from our perspective the risk won’t change much over human history.

Things wandering in to hit us isn’t the problem, we are a small target. However there is the problem of a wanderer doing damage in the Asteroid Belt and making some of them dangerous.

One thing is certain. The probability that Earth will be hit by a dinosaur killer in the future is 1. It will happen, we just don’t know when.

In 1994 we saw a string of 17 explosions rip across the surface of Jupiter, the impacts of Shoemaker Levy 9. Every one of those impacts was big enough to be a dinosaur killer if it had hit Earth.

I’m a big supporter of Spaceguard. We have empirical proof that the killers are out there. We have seen in real time the destruction they represent. From our own history we can be pretty sure that we have been hit within recorded history.

But it doesn’t take a dino killer to do great damage. Even a relatively mediocre meteorite in the right place could do immense damage. A water strike in the confined waters of the Mediterranean will cause untold damage and loss of life.

The danger is very real, but if it makes you feel safer, the last I heard there was exactly 1 observatory in the entire Southern Hemisphere with time in their budget to look for “Earth Grazers”. There were 2, but the Australian Gov in a feat of monumental stupidity withdrew the funding about 4 years ago.

Sleep well. :)

]]> By: Tom Fuller http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10468 Tom Fuller Wed, 07 Jul 2010 01:18:23 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10468 Well, last time I asked an honest question I got lambasted for being ignorant, but maybe things have quieted down enough on this thread for me to chance it.   It would seem to me that the chances for a major strike on Earth from an extraplanetary object would reduce over time. Obviously not to zero, given the jostling and bumping around gravity provides to the junk in and near the solar system, but really, some stuff should fly away out of the solar system, some stuff has already hit various targets and done its damage, and the expansion of the universe should mean we are less likely to be hit by things wandering in from far off corners.   Shouldn't this be a diminishing risk? Well, last time I asked an honest question I got lambasted for being ignorant, but maybe things have quieted down enough on this thread for me to chance it.
 
It would seem to me that the chances for a major strike on Earth from an extraplanetary object would reduce over time. Obviously not to zero, given the jostling and bumping around gravity provides to the junk in and near the solar system, but really, some stuff should fly away out of the solar system, some stuff has already hit various targets and done its damage, and the expansion of the universe should mean we are less likely to be hit by things wandering in from far off corners.
 
Shouldn’t this be a diminishing risk?

]]> By: Bart Verheggen http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10280 Bart Verheggen Mon, 05 Jul 2010 20:31:15 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10280 Well, then why not betting on it? See the link in my previous comment. Forest fires have always occurred naturally. Does that mean I cannot start a forerst fire? Wanna bet? Well, then why not betting on it? See the link in my previous comment.

Forest fires have always occurred naturally. Does that mean I cannot start a forerst fire? Wanna bet?

]]> By: Barry Woods http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10274 Barry Woods Mon, 05 Jul 2010 19:24:35 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10274 Bart, if you are talking about the planets, natural processes that cause 'climate change' then I agree with you... If you are talking about, the additional co2 that man produces, on top of the natural co2, only, then I'm inclined to agree with 39# Bart, if you are talking about the planets, natural processes that cause ‘climate change’ then I agree with you…

If you are talking about, the additional co2 that man produces, on top of the natural co2, only, then I’m inclined to agree with 39#

]]> By: Peter D. Tillman http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10272 Peter D. Tillman Mon, 05 Jul 2010 19:21:44 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10272 #37 Bart Verheggen As you know, the climate is changing now, has changed (sometimes drastically) in the past, will change in the future.  My<em> guess</em> is that CO2 plays a smaller part in this than most climate scientists presently believe. It would be prudent to continue to study climate change, to encourage openness and sharing of research results, and to study adaptation options. Because the climate <em>will </em>change, whether or not people have much to do with it. And whether we're ready -- or not.   Best regards, Peter D. Tillman #37 Bart Verheggen
As you know, the climate is changing now, has changed (sometimes drastically) in the past, will change in the future. 
My guess is that CO2 plays a smaller part in this than most climate scientists presently believe. It would be prudent to continue to study climate change, to encourage openness and sharing of research results, and to study adaptation options. Because the climate will change, whether or not people have much to do with it. And whether we’re ready — or not.
 
Best regards, Peter D. Tillman

]]> By: JohnB http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10214 JohnB Mon, 05 Jul 2010 09:56:13 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10214 Peter, there is also chevron evidence on Groote Eylande in the Gulf of Carpentaria. There is more starting just north of Cairns and running all the way up the east coast of Cape York. I've been following the HIWG for a few years now and I've read a number of the papers involved. Dr. Masse also points to evidence in the not too distant past of a sky burst over South America. Legends tell of the land being shotgunned by meteorites over a large area. All in all, a very interesting area of research. Peter, there is also chevron evidence on Groote Eylande in the Gulf of Carpentaria. There is more starting just north of Cairns and running all the way up the east coast of Cape York.

I’ve been following the HIWG for a few years now and I’ve read a number of the papers involved. Dr. Masse also points to evidence in the not too distant past of a sky burst over South America. Legends tell of the land being shotgunned by meteorites over a large area.

All in all, a very interesting area of research.

]]> By: Bart Verheggen http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10208 Bart Verheggen Mon, 05 Jul 2010 07:23:20 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10208 Peter Tilman, There are some people out there quite willing to bet on climate change, if you were to take a position of "no siognificant climate change". See e.g. <a href="http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2005/06/betting-summary.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>. I hope you win! Peter Tilman,

There are some people out there quite willing to bet on climate change, if you were to take a position of “no siognificant climate change”. See e.g. here. I hope you win!

]]> By: Peter D. Tillman http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10191 Peter D. Tillman Mon, 05 Jul 2010 02:58:14 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10191 Keith, could you please look into blog software that allows editing, or at least previewing? And apologies to all: "ccrool" = SCROLL -- etc etc.  AARGH! Keith, could you please look into blog software that allows editing, or at least previewing? And apologies to all: “ccrool” = SCROLL — etc etc.  AARGH!

]]> By: Peter D. Tillman http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10190 Peter D. Tillman Mon, 05 Jul 2010 02:54:28 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10190 #30,   Bart Verheggen #33, John B. The HIWG site is down at the moment, but a bit of Googling turned up some interesting new work that I wasn't aware of: Burkle Crater, http://www.sandiegoaccountantsguide.com/library/Burckle-crater.php, is from an impact ca. 2807 BC, deep in the Indian Ocean. It generated truly enormous tsunamis, evidence for which is preserved in giant sandy chevron-shaped structures on beaches around the impact point, http://geology.com/news/images/madagascar-chevrons-usgs.jpg http://geology.com/news/labels/Oceanography.html (ccrool down to  "Chevron Structures Evidence of Frequent Meteor Impacts." Another large impact ca. 12,900 yrs BP may have caused the puzzling, sudden  Younger Dryas cooling as we were emerging from the last Ice Age, and the mystifying megafaunal extinctions in the Americas, that are often (and implausibly) ascribed to overhunting by humans. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16016.abstract So it appears that there have been at leas three major impacts in the last 13,000 years ago: Tunguska in 1908 was the third. This is an order of magnitude more than the current NASA model, and strongly suggests we'd best get the lead out. NASA estimates that, on average, a Tunguska-sized asteroid will enter Earth's atmosphere once every 300 years, with an impact equivalent to (roughly) a 2-megaton H-bomb. Best not to be nearby then. http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30jun_tunguska/   Cheers -- Pete Tillman #30,   Bart Verheggen
#33, John B.
The HIWG site is down at the moment, but a bit of Googling turned up some interesting new work that I wasn’t aware of:
Burkle Crater, http://www.sandiegoaccountantsguide.com/library/Burckle-crater.php, is from an impact ca. 2807 BC, deep in the Indian Ocean. It generated truly enormous tsunamis, evidence for which is preserved in giant sandy chevron-shaped structures on beaches around the impact point, http://geology.com/news/images/madagascar-chevrons-usgs.jpg
http://geology.com/news/labels/Oceanography.html (ccrool down to  “Chevron Structures Evidence of Frequent Meteor Impacts.”
Another large impact ca. 12,900 yrs BP may have caused the puzzling, sudden  Younger Dryas cooling as we were emerging from the last Ice Age, and the mystifying megafaunal extinctions in the Americas, that are often (and implausibly) ascribed to overhunting by humans. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16016.abstract
So it appears that there have been at leas three major impacts in the last 13,000 years ago: Tunguska in 1908 was the third. This is an order of magnitude more than the current NASA model, and strongly suggests we’d best get the lead out. NASA estimates that, on average, a Tunguska-sized asteroid will enter Earth’s atmosphere once every 300 years, with an impact equivalent to (roughly) a 2-megaton H-bomb. Best not to be nearby then. http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30jun_tunguska/
 
Cheers — Pete Tillman

]]> By: kdk33 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2010/06/30/embracing-climate-uncertainty/comment-page-1/#comment-10175 kdk33 Mon, 05 Jul 2010 01:03:42 +0000 http://www.collide-a-scape.com/?p=3219#comment-10175 Bart (30) I'm surprised to learn that an appeal to ignorance is a frequent them on Michael's site.  If Michael believes CO2 emmissions are dangerous, he is free to offer supporting evidence.  Appealing to a lack of understanding (ignorance) to bolster his position is just silly. Bart (30)

I’m surprised to learn that an appeal to ignorance is a frequent them on Michael’s site.  If Michael believes CO2 emmissions are dangerous, he is free to offer supporting evidence.  Appealing to a lack of understanding (ignorance) to bolster his position is just silly.

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